The New York Giants have made it a priority to address the quarterback position this offseason, and they’re likely to add players through both free agency or the trade market and the 2025 NFL draft.
So, which quarterback will the Giants draft if they go in that direction? Who will they acquire? And most importantly, who will start in Week 1 of the regular season?
As opposed to repetitive mock drafts, we decided to ask various AI systems those questions. We used ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, and Copilot. All initial questions were worded exactly the same and follow-up questions were tuned to those answers.
While these projections ultimately mean very little, it does provide some probability data based on odds and information that is currently available. If nothing else, it’s interesting change of pace.
Here is what each AI chatbot had to say.
The New York Giants have made it a priority to address the quarterback position this offseason, and they’re likely to add players through both free agency or the trade market and the 2025 NFL draft.So, which quarterback will the Giants draft if they go in that direction? Who will they acquire? And most importantly, who will start in Week 1 of the regular season?As opposed to repetitive mock drafts, we decided to ask various AI systems those questions. We used ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, and Copilot. All initial questions were worded exactly the same and follow-up questions were tuned to those answers.While these projections ultimately mean very little, it does provide some probability data based on odds and information that is currently available. If nothing else, it’s interesting change of pace.Here is what each AI chatbot had to say.
The New York Giants have made it a priority to address the quarterback position this offseason, and they’re likely to add players through both free agency or the trade market and the 2025 NFL draft.
So, which quarterback will the Giants draft if they go in that direction? Who will they acquire? And most importantly, who will start in Week 1 of the regular season?
As opposed to repetitive mock drafts, we decided to ask various AI systems those questions. We used ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, and Copilot. All initial questions were worded exactly the same and follow-up questions were tuned to those answers.
While these projections ultimately mean very little, it does provide some probability data based on odds and information that is currently available. If nothing else, it’s interesting change of pace.
Here is what each AI chatbot had to say.
ChatGPT
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders was the overwhelming favorite using ChatGPT. No matter how the question was asked, the results were always similar.
In total, ChatGPT gives Sanders a 50% chance to start in Week 1 for the Giants.
Shedeur Sanders (50%) – Given the Giants’ No. 3 overall pick and their strong need for a franchise quarterback, Sanders is a top candidate for selection in the 2025 NFL Draft. If drafted, he would likely be the Week 1 starter.
The remaining odds broke down as follows:
- Sam Darnold – 25%
- Justin Fields – 10%
- Cam Ward – 10%
- Matthew Stafford – 5%
Taking free agency and a possible trade off the table, ChatGPT determined that Cam Ward or Sanders were the two most likely quarterback options in the NFL draft. It gave only a 10% probability that any other quarterback would be selected.
Those odds broke down as follows:
- Jaxson Dart – 3%
- Jalen Milroe – 3%
- Quinn Ewers – 2%
- Riley Leonard – 1%
- Remaining field – 1%
Interestingly, ChatGPT gives Ward (50%) a higher chance of being drafted by the Giants than Sanders (40%), but a lower chance of starting in Week 1. That discrepancy was explained in the following way:
Even though Ward has a slightly higher chance of being drafted, Sanders is more likely to start right away due to his NFL readiness and scheme fit. If the Giants draft Ward, they might prefer to ease him in behind a veteran, reducing his Week 1 starting odds.
Grok
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Grok leans heavily toward the Giants starting a veteran quarterback in Week 1 over a rookie. It believes Cam Ward (30%) is more likely to be drafted over Shedeur Sanders (20%) but neither have a high likelihood to start.
Rather, Grok gives the highest probability to Matthew Stafford (30%).
The full list of probabilities are listed below:
- Remaining field – 20%
- Cam Ward – 25%
- Sam Darnold – 25%
- Matthew Stafford – 30%
Matthew Stafford is the most likely Week 1 starter for the Giants in 2025, with a 30% likelihood from the initial assessment, supported by his 35% sign/trade probability and the team’s immediate needs. His trade path is clearer than Ward’s draft uncertainty (dependent on picks 1-2) or Darnold’s free-agency bidding war. The Giants could pair Stafford with a mid-round rookie (e.g., Milroe) for the future, leveraging DeVito’s ERFA status for depth.
Of the “remaining field,” New Orleans Saints quarterback Jake Haener was mentioned as a potential trade target. Meanwhile, Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart was given only a 3% chance of being selected by the Giants.
As it relates to Matthew Stafford, while his Week 1 starting percentage was 30%, Grok gave him a 35% chance to be acquired by the Giants in a trade. Other trade options were Derek Carr (5%) and Kyler Murray (10%).
Gemini
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Like Grok, Gemini leans more toward Matthew Stafford starting in Week 1 giving it a likelihood of 30-35%. However, that exact percentage was shared with a potential rookie quarterback selected in Round 1.
Gemini broke down the draft possibilities as follows:
- Kyle McCord, 10-15%
- Jaxson Dart, 15-25%
- Shedeur Sanders, 25-35%
- Cam Ward, 35-50%
The growing rumors of a potential Matthew Stafford trade significantly increase this possibility. Stafford provides a veteran presence and proven ability, which could accelerate the Giants’ rebuild. The trade is highly dependent on how willing the Rams are to trade him, and what the Giants are willing to give up in a trade.
Gemini added that the likelihood of a Stafford trade “could be higher” than the number they put on it.
If not Stafford, Gemini leans far more heavily toward a rookie starting than a veteran. The only quarterback repeatedly mentioned outside of Stafford and the rookie class was Jameis Winston.
Copilot
Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Copilot took things in a different direction. Initially, it leaned toward a veteran starting in Week 1 but upon further evaluation, changed those percentages. But even the listed veterans were put in an order unlike the previous AI tools.
Ultimately, Copilot believes Shedeur Sanders is the most likely to start for the Giants in Week 1.
The entire field broke down as follows:
- Gardner Minshew – 1%
- Tommy DeVito – 4%
- Drew Lock – 4%
- Sam Darnold – 4%
- Trey Lance – 4%
- Jameis Winston – 10%
- Justin Fields – 11%
- Aaron Rodgers – 11%
- Russell Wilson – 12%
- Matthew Stafford – 12%
- Cam Ward – 13%
- Shedeur Sanders – 14%
Copilot offered far less detail in its answers and stressed the fluid nature of the situation (ie. Sanders not throwing at the NFL Combine).
Sanders’ choice to wait until his Pro Day to throw allows him to work with familiar receivers and showcase his skills in a more controlled environment. This strategic move is intended to ensure he performs at his best, but it also means teams will have to wait a bit longer to see him in action, which can affect immediate projections.
Finally, Copilot gives the Giants a 20% chance to acquire Stafford from the Rams.
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